UK Diamond Market — Upcoming Season Forecast (Natural vs Lab-Grown)

Published: Sep 26, 2025 — outlook for the rest of 2025 into early 2026

Diamonds in the UK are no longer a single story. Between plunging prices, rising lab-grown (LGD) adoption and a luxury niche that’s doubling down on “real rarity,” the coming season looks like a continuation of disruption — but with clear winners and losers depending on price tier, channel and brand storytelling.

Below is a full breakdown of what to expect in the UK diamond market this season.

Quick Snapshot

• Lab-grown diamonds continue to gain traction in the UK — nearly 3 in 10 adults say they’re likely to buy an LGD in future purchases.

• Global and UK LGD markets are still growing rapidly.

• Natural diamond prices and volumes have been under pressure since their 2022 peak.

• Premium natural and fancy-colour stones remain resilient thanks to auctions and branded provenance strategies.

  
  

Key Data for the UK

1. Consumer intent: Roughly 29% of UK adults are open to buying lab-grown diamonds.

2. Market momentum: The LGD market is projected to grow strongly in the UK, with ethical and affordability factors driving adoption.

3. Price pressure: Both natural and LGD prices have fallen steeply, compressing margins but widening accessibility.

4. UK jewellery context: Premium, bespoke channels are holding better for natural diamonds, while mainstream retail leans more toward LGDs.

   
   

Forecast for the Upcoming Season (Rest of 2025 → Q1 2026)

Numeric Forecast — UK

• Lab-grown diamond sales (units): +12% to +18% YoY — growth strongest in <1.5 carat engagement rings and fashion entry level jewellery.

• Lab-grown diamond revenues: +5% to +12% YoY — rising unit sales offset by falling per-carat prices.

• Natural diamond sales (units): −3% to +2% YoY — mainstream tiers weaker, premium stones steady.

• Natural diamond revenues: flat to −6% YoY overall.

• Market share: LGDs to gain 3–6 percentage points of total UK diamond jewellery sales.

Channel & Segment Trends

• Online / D2C: Fastest LGD growth; transparency and sustainability messaging win.

• High-street & department stores: Mixed performance; LGDs gain presence in promotional entry level jewellery assortments.

• Independent / bespoke jewellers: Natural diamonds retain value; provenance and service matter most.

• Auctions & collectibles: Fancy-colour and rare naturals continue to outperform.

What This Means for Retailers & Brands

1. Segment clearly. Position LGDs as affordable and ethical, and naturals as legacy investments.

   BUY NATURAL NOW AS PRICES ARE LOW SO IN 10 YEARS YOU WILL GET A BIG RETURN WHEN NATURAL DEMANDS BOUNCE BACK.

2. Adapt pricing. Revisit LGD pricing frequently to stay competitive.

3. Highlight provenance. Natural diamonds need stronger storytelling with traceability and certification.

4. Educate online buyers. Comparison tools and certification details build trust for LGDs.

5. Tighten inventory. keep LGDs moving quickly to counter price drops.

Bottom Line

For the UK in late 2025 into early 2026: lab-grown diamonds will expand in units and share, especially online and in low-market channels, while natural diamonds will remain strong in premium, collectible niches.

The winners will be retailers who build two clear product lanes — affordable sustainability vs heritage rarity — and who adapt inventory and pricing strategies quickly.

NATURAL DIAMONDS HAVE OUTPERFORMED LAB DIAMONDS IN EARLY SALES SO TIME WILL TELL......